5 On Black: Near Term Startup Trends

This guest post is by John Ramey, the Founder & CEO of isocket.com, a Silicon Valley advertising startup.

It’s a little late to do New Year predictions, so consider this a general “5 things you’ll see happen in tech” post. As with all predictions (which some think are pointless), most of these will only be half right and there will likely be one glaring failure.

The point isn’t to pretend we know what’s going on – the point is to document our insights today and benchmark them against reality a year from now. Besides, if I knew the future I wouldn’t be telling it to you for free.

1. The advances in the consumer web (which is what Web 2.0 was all about) will seep into the commercial web. Simple design and UI practices that are lean and user/task focused will move over to enterprise apps. Look for opportunities to exploit this seepage – for example, how could you carry the benefits of Mint and TripIt over to tax software?

2. Someone, somewhere will try to push the term Web 3.0. This is the same guy who starts a horribly mistimed slow clap at a funeral. He should be removed immediately and not invited to the banquet. Tim O’Reilly is exempt from this rule.

3. We’ll start to have an ownership of the lessons learned from the last few years. A big lesson: small, lightweight, single task focused apps are almost never venture worthy, earth shattering leaps. They are a lot better for the end user but they typically don’t shift the paradigm.

4. More startups will begin with earth shattering hopes and dreams in mind. Over the last few years people would start off with a “we’ll start playing around and see what sticks”. The problem is that what “sticks” is usually what pays the bills first. This put long term version in the backseat.

5. Social platforms will degrade and enterprise platforms will thrive. The sexiness of Facebook Platform and OpenSocial is wearing off as people realize that the “spank the nun” game doesn’t bring a lot of real utility to real people. But the principles and technology behind open platforms will carry over to the enterprise, spurring a new wave of connectivity and innovation.

Remember that all predictions are like a crappy rocking chair. They give you something to do but you don’t make any real progress. Go out and create your own year.

Also be sure to check out College Mogul's 23 Top 10 Lists for Tech in 2008

[Image via: How Stuff Works]